REVENUE: Strong Month for Income and Sales Taxes Offset Weak Month for Federal Sources – In Response, CGFA Makes Modest Upward Revision to Revenue Forecasts
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager


In the pivotal month for revenues, receipts deposited into the State’s General Funds rose a welcomed $593 million in April. The monthly gross total of $7.613 billion is the second highest revenue month ever, only surpassed by the $8.037 billion received in the federal stimulus boosted final tax period month of April 2022…Accounting for April’s large gains, with two months of FY 2025 remaining, revenues into the General Funds are now $650 million or +1.5% above last year’s pace.

…While the level of growth is only moderately above initial projections, the revenue gains were high enough that a modest upward revision could be made…(T)he Commission is increasing its overall FY 2025 revenue total by $317 million from $53.614 billion to $53.931 billion… The Commission’s revised FY 2026 estimate is $54.490 billion, which is a $266 million upward adjustment from the March estimate of $54.224 billion.


ECONOMY: Economy Slows and Stagflation Risk is Mounting
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a surge in imports ahead of new tariffs. While business investment and consumer spending remained solid, economists are warning of potential stagflation, with forecasts pointing to rising inflation and slower growth in the months ahead.