Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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March 2021 Monthly Briefing
FY 2022 STATE EMPLOYEES GROUP INSURANCE PLAN SUMMARY
Anthony Bolton, Revenue Analyst

Due to the circumstances created by the pandemic, state employee group health insurance in FY 2021 experienced a unique combination of utilization and participation that has not been noticed in prior years. For FY 2022, this situation is not expected to continue, though changes in funding, employee contributions, and plan utilization are expected to slightly increase overall liability. Additionally, membership in the group health insurance program is expected to increase by 1% to 363,403 in FY 2022. Existing held bills and interest by CMS are also expected to increase somewhat, though far below historic levels seen in FY17-FY18.

REVENUE: STRONG PERFORMANCE FROM ECONOMIC SOURCES FUELS MARCH GAINS—OFFSETS WEAKER FEDERAL SOURCES AND TRANSFERS
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Base general funds revenues grew $422 million in March. Strong performances from both personal income and corporate income tax receipts were complemented by an impressive month for sales tax revenues. Also factoring into the monthly gain were timing elements related to quirks in both this year and last year’s receipting for a couple of revenue lines. An overall weaker month for federal sources, coupled with lower transfers, served to offset some of the overall positive monthly performance. An extra receipt day also contributed to the positive March total.

Excluding borrowing related activity, through the first three-fourths of the fiscal year, base receipts are up $3.141 billion. In addition to December’s surge in federal sources, that growth also reflects the timing of income tax receipts related to last year’s [2020] filing deadline extension. Through March, combined net income tax receipts are up $2.259 billion. While just over half of those gains continue to be attributed to the shift of FY 2020 final payments into early FY 2021, very respectable underlying base income tax receipting continues to impress. Also positive is the continued trend of sales tax receipt performance as the growth rate continues to improve and now stands at 3.3%.