Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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June 2022 Monthly Briefing
JUNE ADDS ANOTHER $730 MILLION IN ADDITIONAL BASE RECEIPTS, CAPPING OFF SENSATIONAL FISCAL YEAR OF REVENUES WITH BASE RECEIPTS GROWING $5.482 BILLION IN FY 2022
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

General Funds base receipts finished the fiscal year off extremely well growing $730 million in June. This month’s growth came from a combination of all of the major revenue sources – a fitting culmination of above-average receipts that the economically-tied revenue sources have experienced throughout the fiscal year.
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The strong month of receipts for June caps off a sensational fiscal year of revenues with base receipts totaling $50.334 billion, or $51.070 billion overall. This record-breaking fiscal year of revenues was led by the State’s “big three” revenue sources. As has been mentioned throughout the fiscal year, despite FY 2022 receipts being compared to FY 2021 which contained two periods of income tax final payments, personal income tax receipts finished the year a whopping $2.787 billion above last year’s levels, or $2.314 billion on a net basis. Perhaps more impressive was the $1.844 billion rise in corporate income tax net receipts. Sales tax receipts were just as impressive, with year-over-year growth in net receipts of $866 million.

ECONOMY: CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE RISEN WHILE CONFIDENCE FALLS
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

In June, the Fed surprised the market by increasing short-term interest rates by ¾ of a percentage point. Indications from the previous meeting were for another ½ percentage point increase at the June meeting following a similar increase in May. However, on June 15, the Fed’s Open Market Committee voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate from 0.75% - 1.0% to 1.5% - 1.75%. The reason given for this larger than initially expected increase was sustained high levels of inflation and results from the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers that indicated that consumer inflation expectations were beginning to become unmoored from the Fed’s long-term goal of 2.0%.