Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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September 2024 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: FED CUTS AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME REBOUNDS
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

In September, significant economic news emerged as the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a shift in its monetary policy as it cut rates after two years of increases. September also saw the release of economic data that showed a rebound in household income in Illinois.


WEAKER TRANSFERS AND FEDERAL SOURCES CREATES SHARP DECLINE IN SEPTEMBER REVENUES DESPITE NOTABLE INCREASE IN PERSONAL INCOME TAX RECEIPTS
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

Despite a 14.8% increase in Personal Income Tax receipts, revenues deposited into the State’s General Funds fell $679 million in September, a decline of -12.4% as compared to September of last year. The sizeable falloff is mainly due to the lack of revenues this month from Transfers In and Federal Sources.
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With September’s sizeable decline, General Funds receipts through the first quarter of FY 2025 are now down $242 million or -2.0% as compared to the first three months of FY 2024. Just last month, the year-to-date change through August was +6.4%, which shows the volatility of year-to-date comparisons this early in the fiscal year.