DATE: Tuesday, April 25, 2023
TIME: 9:00 a.m.
TOPIC: FY 2024 State Employees’ Group Insurance Program
PLACE: Room 400, Capitol Building, Springfield, IL

ECONOMY: ECONOMIC VOLATILITY COMPLICATES FORECASTING
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

This sharp decline in economic activity associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by the reopening of the economy once vaccines were available, led to high levels of volatility in many economic indicators. This month the Commission looked at a series of economic forecasts to see how they have changed over recent years and to assess if the variance in forecasts has been reduced since the heart of the pandemic.


REVENUE: GENERAL FUNDS REVENUES CONTINUE ITS NET POSITIVE STREAK AS REVENUES RISE ANOTHER $256 MILLION IN FEBRUARY
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

For the ninth consecutive month, including all eight months so far in FY 2023, General Funds revenues have increased compared to the same month of the prior fiscal year. The last drop occurred in May of 2022. February 2023 revenues were $256 million higher than last year, mainly on the strength of income tax revenues.
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Through the first two-thirds of the fiscal year, General Funds base revenues are ahead of last year’s pace by $2.214 billion. When including the revenue gains from ARPA reimbursement funds, the overall growth increases to an impressive $2.539 billion.