Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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December 2022 Monthly Briefing
COMPOSITION OF THE ILLINOIS ECONOMY
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

As 2022 came to an end, the Commission assessed the components that make up the underpinnings of the Illinois economy. The Commission compared annual gross domestic product (GDP) data for the State in 1997 and 2021. The largest industries in Illinois were identified by share of total GDP in 2021. These percentage shares were then compared to GDP values from 1997 to assess how the structure of the Illinois has changed over the last 25 years. This analysis showed a trend towards growth in the service sector and away from the manufacturing sector. Analysis was conducted related to the amount of employment in each sub-sector of the economy as well and the same trend towards services was identified.

REVENUE: WHILE DECEMBER FEDERAL SOURCES SPIKE,
MANY OTHER REVENUE SOURCES EXPERIENCE SLOWING
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

Base revenues for the State’s General Funds grew $90 million in December, primarily on the strength of Federal Sources. While experiencing comparatively lower revenues for much of the fiscal year, Federal Sources in December were $311 million above last year’s levels. These gains helped offset the overall decline in revenues from State sources for the month.

While the December growth of $90 million is notably slower than previous months levels, it continues a streak of positive growth in overall General Funds for every month of FY 2023 thus far. Through the first half of the fiscal year, Illinois’ General Funds base receipts are up $1.709 billion. When including the one-time federal ARPA reimbursements received earlier in the year, the year-over-year increase improves to $2.034 billion.