Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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November 2022 Monthly Briefing
REVENUE: DESPITE ECONOMIC CONCERNS, GENERAL FUNDS REVENUES CONTINUE TO AMAZE, PROMPTING UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF FY 2023 OUTLOOK
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

While there continues to be concerns that an economic slow down, or possibly a recession, is on the horizon in Illinois, there have been few signs of this slow down as it relates to General Funds receipts so far this fiscal year, especially in regard to economically driven revenue sources. General Funds base receipts increased another $277 million in November… Through the first five months of the fiscal year, overall general funds receipts are up an amazing $1.945 billion.

In mid-November the Commission released an updated outlook for FY 2023 general funds revenues for the State of Illinois. The strength of the primary revenue sources so far this fiscal year in combination with the expected influx of additional revenues from State Transfers and one-time federal reimbursement dollars has prompted the Commission to increase its revenue outlook for FY 2023 by $4.9 billion.

ECONOMY: Third Quarter Revised Up, Jobs Continue to Moderate
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

As November concluded, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced its second estimate of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022. Real GDP growth was revised up from 2.6% to 2.9%. While real GDP has rebounded since the first half of the year, job creation has slowed. In most economic environments, a slowing job market would be seen as a negative, but in the current situation, this should be seen more as a positive.