Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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October 2022 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: REBOUND IN THE THIRD QUARTER
By Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

On October 27th, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advance estimate for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2022. The economy expanded 2.6% in the third quarter after two consecutive quarters of contraction. The growth in the economy was primarily driven by a significant increase in exports and a fall-off in imports.

REVENUE: MONTHLY GAINS CONTINUE AS GROWTH FROM INCOME TAXES, FEDERAL SOURCES, AND TRANSFERS BOLSTER OCTOBER RECEIPTS
By Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

It was another strong month for revenues in Illinois as General Funds base receipts rose another $787 million in October…Leading October’s gains were personal income tax receipts which grew an impressive $376 million for the month, or $319 million on a net basis. Corporate income tax receipts also performed well, growing $50 million, or $41 million net. Federal Sources (base receipts) helped offset comparatively lower totals from the first quarter of the year by rising $171 million in October.
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Through the first third of the fiscal year, base receipts are up a very impressive $1.047 billion. This comparative level of growth rises to $1.667 billion when accounting for the funds received from the ARPA Reimbursement for Essential Government Services over the past two fiscal years.