Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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May 2022 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: SEEKING A SOFT LANDING
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

April’s monthly economic briefing concluded that “The future of where the economy actually goes likely depends how well the Federal Reserve implements a changing policy from a more accommodative stance, seeking to ensure full employment, to a more restrictive monetary policy, designed to curtail the rise in prices.” This month the Commission will discuss the Federal Reserve and examine what tools it has at its disposal to slow the economy to get price growth under control without causing a recession (which is often referred to as a “soft landing”).


TIMING OF LAST YEAR’S DELAYED TAX DAY DEADLINE RESULTS IN EXPECTED SIZEABLE DROP IN MAY TAX RECEIPTS
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

After experiencing a record-month of revenues in April, revenues dropped sharply in May, falling $1.214 billion. However, a significant decline was expected due to the timing of last year’s individual income tax final payments. May had one extra receipting day as compared to last year, helping to offset a portion of the declines.
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Despite May’s sizeable decline, overall base receipts remain up $4.751 billion for FY 2022 with one month of the fiscal year remaining. This level of increase shows the strength of receipts for the fiscal year, especially when considering the year-to-date totals are compared to FY 2021, which contained two periods of final income tax payments.