Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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April 2022 Monthly Briefing
STAGFLATION: A STAGNATING ECONOMY WITH HIGH INFLATION
Benjamin L. Varner, Senior Analyst and Economic Specialist

With recent economic events, some economic prognosticators are becoming concerned that the U.S. economy may be beginning to go through a period of stagflation. Stagflation is a combination of the words stagnation and inflation. It describes an economic condition characterized by slow growth and high unemployment (economic stagnation) mixed with rising prices (inflation).

THE CONTINUING VOLATILITY OF APRIL TAX RECEIPTS
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

Last year at this time, the Commission offered a discussion of the volatility of April income tax receipts due to the wide swings of revenues that have occurred over the last decade for this particular month. As is highlighted in the revenue portion of the monthly, April’s revenue volatility has continued in 2022 with net personal income tax receipts growing a massive 99.4% this month and net corporate income tax receipts rising 61.5%. In light of this, it seems appropriate to revisit the reasons behind the ups and downs of April receipts over the last decade and to provide some details behind the April 2022 substantial increase.

RECORD MONTH OF INCOME TAX REVENUES CREATES $3.024 BILLION GENERAL FUNDS REVENUE INCREASE IN APRIL - THOUGH RECEIPT TIMING WILL LIKELY CAUSE A PORTION OF THESE GAINS TO BE OFFSET IN MAY
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

General Funds receipts grew an astonishing $3.024 billion in April. While a notable year-over-year increase was expected because of last year’s delay in the individual income tax deadline from April to May, the extent of the increase surpassed even the most optimistic of expectations. The $8.037 billion receipted in April was the highest base revenue total in any month in the State’s history. This is despite April having one less receipting day than last year.
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With two months of the fiscal year remaining, overall base receipts are up an astonishing $5.965 billion. Much of this growth is due to personal income taxes being up $3.910 billion, or $3.284 billion on a net basis. However, because next month’s personal income tax revenues will be compared to May 2021 figures containing delayed final payments, a notable revenue reduction in May 2022 revenues should be anticipated.