Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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March 5, 2019 Meeting Notice
DATE: Tuesday, March 5, 2019
TIME: 10:00 a.m.
PLACE: Room C-1, Stratton Office Building, Springfield, IL
RE: FY 2020 Economic Forecast and Revenue Estimate and Update to 2019 Revenue Outlook
January 2019 Monthly Briefing
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

In January, base monthly receipts decreased $379 million. Regular readers of the Commission’s monthly briefing will recall that last January net income tax revenues spiked $925 million not only due to higher income tax rates, but also to taxpayer behavior related to the federal tax reform package. In essence, taxpayers were incentivized to pay their tax liabilities within tax year 2017 to take advantage of the last year of the SALT deductions—prior to new federal limitations. The timing of those accelerated payments caused a jump in estimated payments collected in January. As a consequence, the comparative decline in this month’s income tax performance is not surprising and was quite solid when viewed through the proper lens. This month had the same number of receipting days as the same prior year period.

Year To Date:
Excluding interfund borrowing, last year’s $2.5 billion bond proceeds transfer and the $700 million related to the Treasurer’s Investments this fiscal year, base general funds for the first half of FY 2019 are $1.314 billion lower than last year. As explained in the November briefing, the reason for the decline is due to last year’s federal reimbursement surge. Absent that, the closely-tied economic sources continue to demonstrate considerable strength. Even with the expected hiccup in January, gross personal income tax is up by $537 million, or $437 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by an impressive $374 million, or $343 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $174 million, or $156 million net. All other tax sources combined added $69 million in gain.
The FY 2019 general funds budget passed by the General Assembly and signed into law was based upon revenues estimated to be $38.520 billion. While the Commission is not scheduled to update its FY 2019 revenue estimate and present its forecast for FY 2020 until March 5th, a few observations of manifesting revenue pressures are worth noting prior to that scheduled release. These and other revenue related items will be quantified and presented by the Commission at that time.

Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

In CY 2012, gaming revenues totaled $1.651 billion with nearly all of the dollars coming from Illinois riverboats. By CY 2018, the casino AGR total has fallen to $1.375 billion, a $264 million decline from CY 2012 levels. However, the net terminal income of video gaming terminals in Illinois more than made up this difference, accounting for $1.5 billion of the $2.875 billion in total gaming revenues in CY 2018. Therefore, when combined, revenues generated from these gaming formats have increased by over $1.2 billion or 74.1%.