Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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December 2018 Monthly Briefing
Benjamin L. Varner, Senior Analyst and Economic Specialist

Overall, the economy appears to be ending 2018 on a strong note but the future is more uncertain. Economic prognosticators see a slowing of the economy in 2019 with further deterioration in 2020. Employment is expected to continue to be strong but disposable income may be weakening. Inflation is expected to continue at sustainable levels though at a higher level than in recent years.

Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

In December, base monthly receipts increased $208 million. While the economic related sources were mixed, a comparatively stronger month for federal sources contributed to the monthly gain.
Excluding interfund borrowing, last year’s $2.5 billion bond proceeds transfer and the $700 million related to the Treasurer’s Investments this fiscal year, base general funds for the first half of FY 2019 are $935 million behind last year. As explained in last month’s briefing, the reason for the decline is due to last year’s federal reimbursement surge. Absent that, the closely-tied economic sources demonstrated considerable strength. Gross personal income tax is up by $931 million, or $777 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by $318 million, or $292 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $188 million, or $165 million net. All other tax sources combined added $44 million to the year-to-date gain.