Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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Meeting Notice
DATE: Wednesday, March 4, 2020
TIME: CHANGED to 8:00 a.m.
ROOM CLARIFICATION: Room 413, Stratton Building, Springfield IL

RE: FY 2021 Economic Forecast and Revenue Estimate and Update to 2020 Revenue Outlook
February Monthly Briefing
ILLINOIS EMPLOYMENT AND WAGE UPDATE
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

When combining the impact of the employment change with the growth in wages, a CY 2019 annualized wage/employment growth factor of 3.7% results. Although this value is lower than the robust 4.7% comparable value that occurred in CY 2018, the CY 2019 combined rate of 3.7% marked the 2nd strongest rate of growth for this value over the last seven years. The growth in both employment figures and earnings provides some context for the continued solid performance of economically-tied revenue sources.

REVENUE: FEBRUARY RECEIPTS GROW ON PERFORMANCE OF PERSONAL INCOME AND SALES TAXES, WHILE FEDERAL SOURCES STUMBLE
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Base general funds revenues increased by $139 million in February. While the larger economically related sources took pause from decent yearly gains in January, growth returned stronger this month, particularly in the case of personal and sales taxes. Unfortunately, performance from federal sources again whipsawed, this time with a substantially weak month of receipting. Despite an extra calendar day during a leap year, the number of processing days were the same as last February.
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Excluding proceeds from the Treasurer’s Investment program as well as interfund borrowing, through the first two-thirds of the fiscal year base general funds receipts have posted gains of $1.565 billion. Those gains have been driven by specific transfers [Refund Fund and Capital Projects], comparatively better federal sources, court settlement proceeds, tax amnesty program efforts, and decent underlying performance from the larger economically related sources.
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On March 4th, the Commission met to discuss the FY 2021 revenue forecast and FY 2020 revenue update. The full presentation can be seen at [http://cgfa.ilga.gov/Upload/03042020econforecastrevestFY2020-2021.pdf], but the following sections provide a brief overview of the revenue projections over the forecast period.