Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
Robert Pritchard, Co-Chair
SENATE
Donne Trotter, Co-Chair
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December 2017 Monthly Briefing
10-Year Anniversary of the Great Recession, Part 2
Benjamin L. Varner, Senior Analyst and Economic Specialist

In part 1 of this analysis in last month’s update, we examined how Illinois’ economy has compared to the rest of the U.S. and the Midwest in regards to overall GDP growth. This month, we examine how the individual sectors compared.

To see which sectors of the economy have done the best and which the worst during this time period, the Commission compared individual sector totals from 2007 and 2016. Overall, Illinois’ total real GDP grew from $671 billion in 2007 to $696 billion in 2016. This equals total growth of only 3.8%. This compares to growth of 9.1% for the rest of the Midwest and 10.7% for the U.S.


REVENUE
DECEMBER REVENUES MIXED TO END YEAR
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

December receipts grew $326 million with revenue performance varying considerably by source. Gross personal income tax and sales tax were somewhat disappointing, although in the case of personal income tax, due to timing, some receipts may have slipped into early January. However, gross corporate income tax and the performance of some of the other sources were quite strong. A $103 million deposit from a SERS prior year overpayment assisted with the monthly gain. After a stellar month of November, federal sources unsurprisingly took a pause and generated little reimbursement. December had the same number of receipting days as last year.

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Excluding November’s $2.5 billion bond sale transfer proceeds, as well as $354 million from interfund borrowing, base general funds grew $4.816 billion during the first half of the fiscal year. Increased income tax receipts stemming from the recently enacted higher tax rates, fund sweeps, as well as an increase in federal sources resulted in the significant gain.