Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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July 2019 Monthly Briefing
ILLINOIS UNEMPLOYMENT AND WAGE UPDATE
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

When combining the impact of the employment change with the growth in wages, a FY 2019 annualized wage/employment growth factor of 5.0% results. This is significantly higher than the 3.2% comparable value that occurred in FY 2018 and is the highest value since the Great Recession. The growth in both employment and earnings provides some context for the strong performance of economically-tied revenue sources in FY 2019.

REVENUE: JULY RECEIPTS AIDED BY TRANSFERS
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

To begin the new fiscal year, overall base receipts grew $600 million in July. Of that gain, $400 million was due to expected transfers from the Income Tax Refund Fund, and $60 million from the Tourism Promotion Fund [per the FY 2020 budget plan]. Other revenue sources performed in mixed fashion to start FY 2020. The month had one more receipting day than did last July.
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Overall transfers increased by $498 million in July. As mentioned, the monthly increase was largely due to timing of transfers, as $400 million of the gain was related to the planned for $400 million in Income Tax Refund transfers, as well as a $60 million transfer from the Tourism Promotion Fund (per FY 2020 budget plan). Those gains helped offset a $21 million decline in Lottery transfers and a $10 million dip in riverboat transfers. Federal sources started FY 2020 with modest improvement, as receipts increased $44 million as compared to July of FY 2019.