Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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April 30, 2019 Meeting Notice
DATE: Tuesday, April 30, 2019
TIME: 9:30 a.m.
PLACE: Room 400, State Capitol Building, Springfield, IL 62706
TOPIC: FY 2020 State Employees’ Group Insurance Program
February 2019 Monthly Briefing
ILLINOIS EMPLOYMENT AND WAGE UPDATE
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

When combining the impact of the employment change with the growth in wages, a CY 2018 annualized wage/employment growth factor of 4.6% results. This is markedly higher than the 2.0% comparable value that occurred in CY 2017 and is the highest value since CY 2012. The growth in both employment figures and earnings provides some justification for the solid performance of economically-tied revenue sources this fiscal year.

REVENUE: FEBRUARY RECEIPTS UNREMARKABLE AS FEDERAL SOURCES DISAPPOINT
Jim Muschinke, Revenue Manager

In February, absent last fiscal year’s interfund borrowing, base monthly receipts decreased $116 million. Another month of comparatively weak federal sources was more than enough to offset fairly nondescript gains from the larger economic related sources. Also contributing to the comparatively tepid performance was the strength of receipts demonstrated during last February.
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Excluding interfund borrowing, last year’s $2.5 billion bond proceeds transfer and the $700 million related to the Treasurer’s Investments this fiscal year, base general funds for the first half of FY 2019 are $1.429 billion lower than last year. As explained in the November briefing, the reason for the decline is due to last year’s federal reimbursement surge. Absent that, the closely-tied economic sources continue to demonstrate considerable strength. Through February gross personal income tax is up by $575 million, or $467 million net. Gross sales tax receipts are up by an impressive $375 million, or $340 million net. Gross corporate income taxes are up by $176 million, or $159 million net. All other tax sources combined added $49 million in gain.