Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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October 2019 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: TOO MUCH WORRY?
Julie Bae, Pension Analyst/Economic Specialist

Since the Great Recession, the U.S. economy is now in the longest expansion in history. However, history tells us the expansion in the business cycle will end at some point. Recently, fear of the next recession has been exacerbated due to weaker domestic growth and a global slowing, along with other uncertainties including trade talks with China. That being said, the most recent economic data suggests we are doing fine – for now.

REVENUE: OCTOBER RECEIPTS SPURRED HIGHER BY COURT SETTLEMENT PROCEEDS AND FEDERAL SOURCES
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Excluding last fiscal year’s $500 million in Treasurer’s Investments, base October revenues increased by $209 million. A large component of the monthly gain was $193 million in court settlement proceeds related to drug company recoveries via the Attorney General’s Office (more information is here http://www.illinoisattorneygeneral.gov/pressroom/2019_10/20191028.html). In addition, a comparatively better month for federal sources also aided in the monthly gain, while transfers were weaker and most other revenue sources performed unspectacularly.
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Excluding proceeds from the Treasurer’s Investment program, through the first third of the fiscal year, base general funds receipts have posted gains of $1.420 billion. Those gains have been driven by specific transfers [Refund Fund and Capital Projects], stronger federal sources, court settlement proceeds, and decent performance from the larger economically related sources.