Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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November 2019 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY KEEPS CHUGGING ALONG
Benjamin L. Varner, Senior Analyst and
Economic Specialist

As of November of 2019, the current expansion of the U.S. economy will have reached 126 months. The economy has been expanding since the end of the Great Recession in June of 2009. Although the current expansion is the longest ever recorded, it has not been as strong as other expansions.

NOVEMBER 2019 BOND SALE AND RATINGS
Lynnae Kapp, Senior Analyst

Illinois sold $750 million in General Obligation bonds competitively at the beginning of November 2019. The tax-exempt bonds were sold in three series with a total all-in true interest cost of 3.4578%. The proceeds of the bonds will mainly be used for transportation projects under the State’s new six-year $45 billion Rebuild Illinois capital program. Some state building renovations will be paid from the proceeds as well as a few remaining projects from previous capital programs.

REVENUE: DESPITE TAX AMNESTY PROCEEDS, RECEIPTS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER AS FEDERAL SOURCES WEAKEN
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Excluding interfund borrowing, base November revenues declined by $106 million. While the latest tax amnesty program set forth under P.A. 101-0009 boosted certain tax receipts, a significant drop in federal source revenues coupled with declines in a variety of other revenue lines, more than offset any gains.

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Year to Date

Excluding proceeds from the Treasurer’s Investment program as well as interfund borrowing, through the first five months of the fiscal year, base general funds receipts have posted gains of $1.314 billion. Those increases have been driven by specific transfers [Refund Fund and Capital Projects], stronger federal sources, court settlement proceeds, the tax amnesty program, and decent underlying performance from the larger economically related sources.