Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
Donald Moffitt, Co-Chair
SENATE
Donne Trotter, Co-Chair
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August 5, 2015 Meeting Notice
Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2015
Time: 10:30 a.m.
Place: Room A-1 Stratton Building
RE: Vote on proposed closures of Illinois State Museum and Hardin County Work Camp
June 2015 Monthly Briefing
REVENUE: ADMINISTRATION EXECUTES $454 MILLION IN INTERFUND BORROWING ON FINAL DAY OF FY 2015 – OVERALL FY2015 RECEIPTS FALL WITHIN RANGE PREDICTED BY CGFA – OVERAL ESTIMATE OF FY 2016 REMAINS UNCHANGED
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

In a surprising move, the Governor elected to utilize interfund borrowing authority granted to him under P.A. 98-692 on the final day of FY 2015. The Act allowed the Governor to enter into up to $650 million in interfund borrowing; however, the total borrowing was approximately $454 million. According to statute, those borrowed funds must be paid back within 18 months from the date borrowed; effectively meaning repayment is not due until the mid-point of FY 2017.

Revenues in June fell $475 million, excluding the above interfund borrowing. The decline was attributed to the lower income tax rates as well as a dismal month for federal sources. June had one more receipting day when compared to last year.
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For the fiscal year, excluding the interfund borrowing as well as the Budget Stabilization Fund transfers, general funds finished at $35.888 billion, or $830 million less than base revenues received last year. It should be noted that the revenue picture was made brighter with the $1.284 billion in fund sweeps. Absent that action, base revenues would have fallen a greater $2.114 billion.
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The FY 2015 budget was built on a revenue forecast of $35.352 billion per HJR 100 that was passed in May 2014. Actual FY 2015 general funds revenues, excluding interfund borrowing and Budget Stabilization Fund transfers, totaled $35.888 billion or $471 million above the March forecast and falling in the range predicted by the Commission. In comparison to HJR 100, actual FY 2015 revenues exceeded that forecast by $536 million.
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The Commission’s FY 2016 estimate presented in March was $32.139 billion. A review of that estimate [based on current law], including performance over the final third of the fiscal year, FY 2015 actuals, and updated economic measures, indicates that while estimates of certain revenue sources have to be adjusted to some degree, the overall forecast remains unchanged as the competing pressures on that earlier estimate appear to offset each other.