Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
Robert Pritchard, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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May 2018 Monthly Briefing
ECONOMY: CONCERN OF AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE EMERGES
Julie Bae, Economic Specialist

In the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 1-2, the Fed, as widely expected, unanimously voted to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 1.50% and 1.75% following the March rate increase. The Fed has been targeting 2% for the inflation rate for the past several years, and now the inflation rate appears to be near its target.

REVENUE: MAY REVENUES MIXED FUELED BY COMPARATIVELY STRONGER FEDERAL SOURCES
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Base receipts grew $606 million in May as expected gains from personal income tax, coupled with a comparatively strong month for federal sources, more than offset weaker sales taxes and transfers.
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Excluding November’s $2.5 billion bond sale transfer proceeds, as well as $527 million from interfund borrowing, base general funds grew $8.504 billion through May. Increased income tax receipts, fund sweeps, and increased federal sources resulted in a significant gain.