Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
Robert Pritchard, Co-Chair
SENATE
Heather Steans, Co-Chair
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April 2018 Monthly Briefing
10-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE GREAT RECESSION: PART 3 - HOUSING
Benjamin L. Varner, Senior Analyst and Economic Specialist

In this month’s briefing, the Commission returns to its earlier examination of the Illinois economy ten years removed from the “Great Recession.” In parts one and two of this series, published in November and December of 2017, the Commission looked at how the economy recovered as measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This month the Commission will examine how the housing market has recovered in Illinois.

REVENUE: APRIL RECEIPTS BOLSTERED BY EXTRA RECEIPTING DAY—STRONG LAST DAY LIKELY REFLECTS ONE-TIME NON-WAGE REVENUES
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager

Base receipts grew $937 million in April, with gains posted by most of the larger revenue sources. An extra receipting day for the month resulted in a large final day of personal income tax revenues, some of which would likely have fallen into early May if not for the extra processing day. [As an aside, this upcoming June will have one less receipting day]. While a precise component breakdown is not yet available for April’s income tax receipts, preliminary data indicate that another reason for April’s impressive performance was due to strong final day extension payments. Presumably, this was due to non-wage related revenues. Such items could include dividends and capital gains stemming from market conditions in tax year 2017, as well as remnant one-time impacts from federal tax changes [i.e. repatriated income]. Also, to the extent taxpayers filing extensions overpaid to avoid penalty, that may manifest in increased future refund demand next fiscal year when returns are finalized, although it’s too early to quantify such impacts.
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Excluding November’s $2.5 billion bond sale transfer proceeds, as well as $516 million from interfund borrowing, base general funds grew $7.898 billion through April. Increased income tax receipts as well as fund sweeps, and an increase in federal sources resulted in a significant gain.