February 2018 Monthly Briefing
REVENUE: FEBRUARY RECEIPTS GROW SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN COMPARED TO LAST YEAR’S DISMAL PERFORMANCE
Jim Muschinske, Revenue Manager
Excluding $162 million of interfund borrowing, February receipts grew $876 million with gains being posted by many of the larger revenue sources. Obviously, comparably higher income tax rates are a primary cause of the monthly advance, but another factor was much higher federal sources. Another key reason for the positive month can be explained by the extremely poor February experienced one year earlier. During that month, receipts had fallen $423 million, and a clear economic slowdown was impacting revenues. Thus while the positive monthly performance this February should not be dismissed, the year over year comparison must be viewed in the context of the extreme weakness experienced last year.
CGFA FY 2019 GENERAL FUNDS FORECAST
On February 27th, the Commission released its official FY 2019 revenue estimate as well as an updated FY 2018 forecast. [The full presentation can be found on the Commission’s homepage]… the Commission’s FY 2019 general funds estimate is $37.865 billion. That forecast represents a base decline of $239 million and an overall decline of $2.739 billion from revised FY 2018 expectations. These reductions are due entirely to the year over year impact the FY 2018’s bill back log pay down had on federal sources, as well as the FY 2018 fund sweep/reallocation of $275 million that is not expected to be repeated at this time. As a result, those items serve to overshadow anticipated improvement in the larger economically related sources such as income and sales taxes.