Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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August 2025 Monthly Briefing
EMPLOYMENT STALLS AS INFLATION PRESSURES REBUILD
Benjamin L. Varner, Chief Economist

The U.S. economy is showing growing signs of strain. Job growth has slowed to a pace that is beginning to worry both policymakers and markets...At the same time, inflation, which had been easing in recent years, is showing signs of re-acceleration.

GROWTH IN PERSONAL INCOME TAX, SALES TAX, AND TRANSFERS HELP OVERALL RECEIPTS TICK UP HIGHER IN AUGUST
Eric Noggle, Revenue Manager

August marked another mixed month for state revenues; however, gains in Personal Income Tax, Sales Tax, and Transfers-In were enough to outweigh declines in Federal Sources and other areas. Total General Funds receipts rose by $72 million compared to August of last year—a year-over-year increase of 2.1%. This month’s growth effectively offsets the 0.9% decline in July, resulting in a modest cumulative gain of $37 million, or 0.5%, through the first two months of FY 2026.
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