Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability
HOUSE
C.D. Davidsmeyer, Co-Chair
SENATE
David Koehler, Co-Chair
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December 2021 Monthly Briefing
ILLINOIS EMPLOYMENT/UNEMPLOYMENT UPDATE
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

The latest employment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics illustrates that while Illinois continues to show gradual improvement in its job figures, it is still some distance away from pre-pandemic employment levels. Prior to the pandemic, on a seasonally adjusted basis, Illinois was averaging around 6.1 million jobs statewide. The impact of COVID-19 on the economy caused this figure to abruptly fall to 5.3 million in April 2020. Since that time, these employment figures have been gradually improving to its current level of 5.9 million (November 2021, preliminary). While this figure is 11.8% higher than the pandemic-induced low point, it remains 1.7% lower than the employment levels seen prior to the pandemic at the beginning of 2020.


REVENUE: SIGNIFICANT DECEMBER GAINS FROM ECONOMIC SOURCES AND TRANSFERS ARE OFFSET BY COMPARATIVELY LOWER FEDERAL SOURCE PERFORMANCE
Eric Noggle, Senior Revenue Analyst

Base December general funds revenues declined $173 million. Comparatively lower federal source revenues served to offset significant revenue gains by the vast majority of other sources. Last year, $1.325 billion in federal sources were receipted in December, which was brought about by a surge in reimbursable spending made possible from proceeds of the $2.0 billion in short-term borrowing as well as reimbursement from federal Coronavirus Relief Fund moneys. The $377 million in federal sources received this month results in a year-over-year December loss of $948 million for this revenue source. However, when these federal dollars are removed, the remaining December general funds receipts were up a solid $775 million.
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Through the first half of FY 2022, overall base receipts are up $918 million. When removing the federal dollars from the equation, receipts are up a strong $1.266 billion. This growth is even more impressive when factoring in the remarkable performance of income tax receipts this fiscal year. In the first six months, income tax receipts are up a combined $266 million. As detailed in earlier briefings, what makes this increase so impressive is that the revenue totals of FY 2022 are compared to FY 2021 receipts that benefitted from last year’s final payment delay, valued at approximately $1.3 billion. Net sales tax also continues to perform well, now up $643 million through the first six months of the fiscal year. All other sources are trailing last year’s levels by a combined $40 million.